Big Solar. Especially In China. China gets blamed for cheap solar panels, especially in the 201 petition. In 2016, their market was more than 2x the US, over 30GW. Coal is drastically declining there too. IEA, which isn’t known for great data is lifting its solar outlook in response to real data.
The Truth About Peaking Power. Don’t take anyone’s word for it. Peaking power plants are losing their value because the capacity contracts and repower approvals aren’t getting done. Solar with storage is too cost effective so I ask again. What are you doing to make your solar project dispatchable with dc-coupled storage? I ask selfishly because that is my focus today in helping develop these projects.
Storage In Massachusetts. Engie is building a storage project, interesting on a few counts. We’re coming down from the 4 hour system into a 2 hour system which lowers costs and keeps the flexibility aspects there. It’s still small though, 3MW doesn’t move the needle and we need to go much bigger. See above, dispatching solar projects is the real need in the market.
ISOs Respond to Perry. PJM doesn’t like it. ISOs say that this would harm their free market pricing signals. FERC is independent of DOE so I look forward to hearing the testimony.
Your Answers On My Question. Thanks for the feedback on my question about charging for the newsletter. Dozens of you wrote that I should get sponsors instead, which I tend to agree with but solar doesn’t do digital advertising, we prefer lanyards. That is why I started SolarWakeup Live! Mini-conferences. Boston and DC in 2017, New York in January and San Diego in February. Many said you wanted to help grow this platform we all share, sponsor one or more conferences and our conversations will flourish.
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Yann
The Tone Of The ITC Hearing. It was boring through the prepared testimony but hours of questions from the commissioners was telling. Commissioners were much more demanding of answers to Suniva/SolarWorld starting with their request to understand how a 201 remedy would help them survive. Crickets from the petitioners on that point.
Craziest Thing Said By Suniva/SolarWorld. The minimum price and tariffs would not affect the market because the RPS policies would require utilities to buy solar at whatever price it costs and the tax credit adjusts to higher pricing. It was also said that there was no elasticity in the utility scale market meaning that cost of install was detached from market size.
Best Point(s) By Anti 201 Witnesses. 1. There is no obvious and stated circumstance where Suniva and SolarWorld end up in a better position 4 years from now with a requested 201 remedy. (SEIA lawyer Matthew Nicely) 2. Solar industry may have grown through solar tariffs 1 and 2 but silicon wasn’t as fortunate, the US leadership was lost when China retaliated to the tariffs. 3. Don’t forget the consumers and the higher price of energy they would have to pay if the proposed remedy is recommended.
Advice To Solar Industry From SEIA President. I spoke with Abby Hopper of SEIA and asked what solar companies should be doing. Patience is the answer because there is nothing happening today, tomorrow or the next few weeks. SEIA is going to the White House today and Trump goes to China in November. Expect more deal talks to heat up over next weeks and months.
What Was The Biggest Surprise. NextEra showed up with a big hitter. Duke did a press release but NextEra sent Mike O’Sullivan who has been the VP of Development at the deregulated side of NextEra for over 15 years. He knows the market and speaks well. Easily the caliber of a utility CEO in many other circumstances and it was not lost on me that he came himself instead of a junior representative. Meanwhile, has anyone heard from SEPA?
FERC, Lewandowski, and Rick Perry. Politico seems to think that Corey Lewandowski is pulling strings for coal operators and pushing the coal electricity bailout. FERC now looks to fast track this with days/weeks to file and respond. First reporting insinuates that the fix is in.
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Yann
The ITC Remedy Hearing. As I prepare for the remedy hearing that starts in a few hours, I am looking at the witness list that consists of solar professionals, lawyers and diplomats. This is a hearing to discuss the remedy that is requested by the petitioners and the answer by the trade association. SEIA rightfully pointed out that Suniva’s request for module tariffs is above the allowed 50% tariff under the 201 petition. SolarWorld is requesting an import quota on cell and modules and is not expected to support a minimum price. SEIA also proposed some options which include doing something with the tariff deposits from the first two tariff cases and an import license that could create monies for domestic manufacturing.
What Isn’t Expected To Happen. Anything off script. Most people in the room don’t expect to hear anything that they don’t plan on hearing. All sides will say what they planned for and nobody is expecting any surprises. No deal is expected to be announced but don’t be surprised if you start hearing talk about a deal being discussed. Too many what if scenarios to really get into now and there isn’t a lot of precedent when it comes to the 201 petition.
What Happens Next? Depending on how the feedback, if any, from the commissioners affects the mood in the room, expect the parties to keep talking. It doesn’t seem like there is a path where this doesn’t end up on the President’s desk so there will remain a wild card until the end. I also remain skeptical that without a corporate solution for Suniva and perhaps SolarWorld, that a deal can be had. I will be looking for sidebars and one on one conversations tomorrow at the hearing. The remedy vote will be on October 31st, same day as SolarWakeup Live! Boston and a topic that is expected to be discussed in detail.
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Yann
Yann Goes To Washington. I don’t expect new news to come out of the remedy hearing but there was too much nuance involved in the process. So I am on my way to Washington this morning and will be in the ITC hearing room tomorrow as Suniva and SolarWorld make their arguments. I want to see the body language, the tone and facial expressions in the room. I am not interested in the news, other reporters will cover that. I am trying to figure out where this is going to end up and if any of solar’s messaging is getting to the commissioners. No dinner plans for tonight so I may have to hit up my favorite Indian restaurant in DC, I must celebrate globalism after all.
SolarWakeu Live! Boston. On October 31st, we will take on Boston with SWu Live. Our first speaker that we are announcing is Daniel Hullah, Managing Director of GE Ventures. Daniel has over a decade in cleantech VC with GE, National Grid and Rockport. This is a conversation I am really interested in. When GE moved into Boston, Jeff Immelt highlighted the need for innovation and startups to shape GE, and corporate development in cleantech is quite active. Get your tickets now, 3 more great speakers to be announced soon.
So Much Going on, Read It all. New York Times covers renewable energy jobs going to coal country. The Florida PSC continues to be a retirement home for legislators, this time with a guy that has shown his roots long ago. More loan guarantee for Vogtle, it still won’t get built. DOE wants subsidies for coal and nuclear plants (totally crazy, I know). Puerto Rico still needs energy and water and food and help. If you can help visit unidosporpuertorico.com and make a donation. If you have materials that you want and can donate, please email me.
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Yann