The Weekend. A great week in New York and I head to San Francisco next week. The state of the solar industry is steady and resilient. Mentally prepared for anything that is thrown at the industry, most of you are doing a good job of taking things in stride. That being said, for all of you heading to Solar Power Northeast, I can only say one thing to you. Fly Eagles Fly!
State Job Losses. GTM is breaking down the impacts of 201 by State. While California may have the biggest impact, it will be felt less than Texas perhaps. The fringe PURPA States will simply not start up or continue to grow from a nascent state. That being said most of the Florida losses I don’t agree with. Most of Florida solar is built on the balance sheet of the ratepayer and therefore a cost increase is actually a financial improvement to the utility monopoly since it increases rate base.
South Carolina Pain. This likely spells the end of the SCANA acquisition by Dominion. SCANA was scheduled to bill SC ratepayers about $37million per month but the State legislature voted 119-1 against allowing SCANA to collect those payments. I know it seems obvious that the legislature would vote this way but I don’t underestimate the power of utilities in Southeast legislatures. This time, the right vote was taken, now to figure out the 1 person that voted for it. (Mr. I pushed the wrong button/Mr. I am termed out and need a job)
You Failed At Your Job. The US Government has an employee that describes his job this way. “I went to Washington, D.C., for one purpose and that was to help create coal jobs in the United States. That’s my total purpose for being there.” Once you pick your jaw up from the table, you should be comforted by the fact that he is going to fail in his one purpose. Also, how does he sleep at night?
My Lithium Ion 201 Testimony. Fast forward 5-8 years from today and someone in the US is crying that China owns the lithium ion battery manufacturing supply chain. If you look where US IP went post bankruptcy and where the investments in manufacturing are going right now, you will find much of it in lithium battery city. If the US wants to lead, do it now.
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Yann
Grateful. Yesterday’s SolarWakeup Live! event exceeded all expectations and by the look of the lobby, it seems that good networking was in the works. I want to thank everyone that attended and the sponsors for making the event possible. Look out for the conversations to make it onto the website and your favorite audio platform in the next few weeks. When looking at the podcasts, don’t forget to search for EnergyWakeup to subscribe.
Clean Peak. The new version of the RPS is the Clean Peak Standard, an RPS that moves with the peak demand of the grid. This aligns the clean energy needs with the grid’s needs, i.e. preemptively adjusts procurement with side effects of the duck curve. In many ways this could be called the storage RPS.
SMART Storage. As SMART rolls out, I want to hear from the market participants about the program. There is a nice oped in the rundown today. My question to you is what percentage of SMART projects will be built with storage? The economics seem to be clearly in the money with storage but surely there are other market obstacles that may stop you from moving ahead with storage, tell me what your thinking is.
Conference Call? If SolarWakeup were to host a conference call on an ongoing basis, would you be interested in that? What types of experts would you want to have on and is this interaction something worthy of the time investment, on your and my end?
Call For Next City. Boston, DC and New York are in the books. Where should we go next? Goal is to have markets which could drive 100 attendees or more.
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Yann
Time For Live! In NYC. It’s never too late to join us in New York for SolarWakeup Live! This will be a great event and if all technology works as intended you will be able to hear the podcast replays in a few weeks. Thanks to all for joining and the sponsors that make it happen.
Arizona Sees The Light. Don’t blame me if I read the highlights from the Arizona Corporate Commissioner with a grain of salt. But, I will take it as a sign in the right direction if executed on correctly. It will be a good day for Arizona consumers if the ACC moves towards power generation that does not have exposure to fuel cost volatility and takes advantage of Arizona’s land and solar resource.
Taiwan Jumps In. As South Korea has filed and Canada is complaining to the WTO about NAFTA, Taiwan is also asking for remedy against the US. I am still waiting for the Chinese response to the 201 tariff. Lighthizer better start working quickly towards a settlement before this all gets out of control.
BP Makes Another Move. Having an EV charging network means having access to real estate that will enable the electrified transportation system to run more efficiently. That is why some of the biggest energy, oil, and transportation companies have invested into EV charging companies. BP is now moving into this space with an investment and announcement that they will put charging at their gas stations. Since they already have the real estate this would seem to make sense, look to see other oil majors do the same.
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I am on my way to New York for the third edition of SolarWakeup Live! 6 years ago, this newsletter went to about 40 people and it’s unbelievable where it has gone since. On Wednesday there will be almost 150 people in a room to join in a conversation about solar. The hope is that this becomes a monthly get together because our industry is constantly moving forward, deploying well over $20 billion every year. See you Wednesday!
Energy Progression. A few years ago there was a massive coal to natural gas replacement cycle. In Florida, there was also a oil to gas replacement. The replacement cycle is supposed to revolve every 30+ years or so. As we’ve seen in Michigan, it may be the end of gas as a replacement source given where the cost curves of renewables and storage are and where they’re going. At the very least, ratepayers should be given the choice to invest in a future that prices in the cost of fuel price volatility and the source of the energy. Time to look up after a century of looking down.
NJ Back To The Top. State races matter as New Jersey is showing us. NJ will be fixing the solar market shortly after a Christie veto and is now going back into RGGI and backing the Paris climate accord. I’m excited to see where NJ goes from here, it has a great market that can reestablish the area as a solar powerhouse.
Tax Shell Game. Ever since the tax reform came through, some regulators have pushed for utilities to pass the additional profits back to ratepayers. This sounds like recouping fuel savings when the prices drop which never seem to go back to where they came from when rates went up. For solar, this is a catch 22 since our unspoken secret is that we do better when rates go up and never down. I don’t see many of you rushing to advocate at the commissions to bring this money back to the ratepayers.
Coming To America. Jinko has confirmed that it’s coming to Florida with a secret procurement deal. I’ve gotta say something that seems obvious to me. There are only a few buyers in the US marketplace that would sign a 1.75GW module deal, especially somewhat tied to the intention of opening a factory in Florida Moreover, navigating the Florida economic development council takes work on top of the legwork you need to engage the Jacksonville Mayor’s office at the same time. Leaving the procurement announcement nameless seems ridiculous to me, there is a well over 75% chance that Florida Power & Light/NextEra is the counterparty. This wouldn’t be the first time that NextEra has tried to do this, they’ve been looking for a manufacturing win for almost a decade.
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