SunShot. Greetings from DC, where I am going to be for the next few days to peer review the SunShot Summit. I’ve long been a big fan of the work that the SunShot team has enabled through their funding while pushing for results. I know many startups in solar that were able to move forward in a market lacking the seed stage capital needed to get a company off the ground.
Here We Go Again. The NOPR didn’t go where lobbyists had desired when they drafted the subsidy for coal plants for Rick Perry. Now they are pushing the issue again without the onerous regulatory and oversight process. The coal industry is looking for Perry to use emergency powers to prop up the dirty and unprofitable power plants.
Slow Your Ratebase. I’m going to keep the Vote Solar fanboy editorials going until you’ve all given some of your advocacy budget to the company. First in Michigan and now in North Carolina, Vote Solar is getting involved in big rate base initiatives which is really smart. Typically, the solar industry goes into a process asking for something. Now, the advocacy team is going in when the utility wants a big handout and putting itself in the way of a big rate base increase. Most requests of this magnitude end up in a settlement, which is a great place for the solar industry to be to ask for things.
Startup Arctic. Solving local issues with local startups makes a lot of sense. Launch Alaska is doing exactly that, highlighting Alaska’s unique energy challenges and already unique infrastructure, 12% of the grid is on microgrids, the non-profit program is looking to help make the system more efficient. High electricity costs makes the startup ideas become immediately feasible since the financial value of each kWh is much higher.
Save The Snow. You probably watched some of the Winter Olympics this weekend, expertly judging the jumps and knocking the quad that failed into a triple axle. I’m with you, the landing could have been better. When you speak to the athletes that spend time on the mountains, they tell you about their worries about the snow in the future.
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I am headed back to Miami right now after a great week in SF. More on the work that we’re doing on Monday. Always exciting to dig into new advisory work to help great companies grow in the solar industry. More info on the next SolarWakeup Live! coming soon. Have a great weekend!
CalSEIA -> CalSSA. The state solar trade group that leads the Country’s biggest solar State is moving forward in a big way. CalSEIA is renaming itself CalSSA, the California Solar and Storage Association. I was surprised by the obviousness of the move and quickly wondered why nobody else had done that, especially SEIA. Energy storage is clearly the improvement of solar generation that is coming and letting other groups take that advocacy away from solar generation is ridiculous. Board members tell me that while discussion is centered around how this relates to policy, a rebranding discussion has not come up in any meaningful way. Question is why not…
Contributor Input. You will see a new feature in SolarWakeup today, a contributor piece from a solar market leader. If you have a relevant message that informs or advances the solar industry, you can submit your piece to SolarWakeup going forward.
Your State Advocacy. When you think of the trade group that advances State policies that drive solar markets like net metering or PURPA rules, who do you think of? The answer obviously is Vote Solar which focuses on creating markets across the Country for solar companies to participate in. Not driven by membership fees, Vote Solar relies on fundraisers and foundation dollars. Your budget should include a (very large) check to Vote Solar to keep your market open. Look out for the Equinox event that is happening in March.
Investing $500million. If you were in charge of investing BP’s $500million into renewable energy, how would you divide the investment?
Add More Lawsuits. Canadian manufacturers are not happy with Trump refusing to keep NAFTA rules in place to bring modules from Canada into the US. So they files suit!
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By Tony Clifford
The latest numbers from The Solar Foundation’s National Solar Jobs Census didn’t surprise me, but they certainly put me in a bad mood.
9,800.
That’s the number of solar workers who had jobs at the end of 2016 who, as the calendar settles in to 2018, no longer have them—and that number is only the beginning of an avalanche of job losses that will result from the mystifying decision to impose tariffs on imported solar modules because two foreign-owned companies couldn’t compete.
By Tony Clifford
The latest numbers from The Solar Foundation’s National Solar Jobs Census didn’t surprise me, but they certainly put me in a bad mood.
9,800.
That’s the number of solar workers who had jobs at the end of 2016 who, as the calendar settles in to 2018, no longer have them—and that number is only the beginning of an avalanche of job losses that will result from the mystifying decision to impose tariffs on imported solar modules because two foreign-owned companies couldn’t compete.
Remember those names when you’re planning your next project. Those are the two companies that cost the solar industry nearly 10,000 jobs as clearly as if they’d handed out the pink slips themselves.
In the fantasy world only SolarWorld and Suniva inhabited, the tariffs wouldn’t destroy jobs, they’d grow jobs. They’d protect jobs. They’d be the beginning of an unending solar boom. And some people, including the president believed them.
But SolarWorld and Suniva were never in this for you. They were always in this for themselves. And their executives are unethical, not ignorant.
They were fully aware of what tariffs would do to the U.S. solar industry, but their aim was to get their foreign owners more value in bankruptcy, playing with your livelihoods like they were so many chips in a poker game.
While the Trump tariff was not announced until January 2018, uncertainty over the trade case was the primary factor that caused the 3.8% decrease in the number of American solar jobs. The trade case, filed last April by the two shameless charlatans named above, forced many solar firms (including Standard Solar) to reconsider their 2017 hiring plans.
The solar industry expected slower growth in 2017 because of the record number of megawatts installed in 2016 as a result of the (previous) uncertainty engendered by the battle over the investment tax credit (a crisis that, while averted, caused 2016 to be an explosive year for solar growth that couldn’t be repeated immediately).
But let’s look at hard numbers: Between 2012 and 2016, the average year-to-year growth in solar jobs was more than 20% annually. Everyone expected that rate of growth to slow, but no one—not even the most pessimistic of analysts—expected an actual loss of jobs. No one expected that prior to April.
Then what history will call “the Section 201 trade case” happened, and all bets were off. We pleaded, the Solar Energy Industries Association pleaded, nearly every sane voice in the industry screamed at the top of their lungs that tariffs would result in job losses. The final estimate was 23,000 in 2018 alone. And we’re reaping the whirlwind of the “Trump tariff” that was sown in the hot air and empty promises made by the two petitioners.
My biggest worry is that the solar industry has yet to see the worst impacts of the Trump tariff. We are already beginning to hear about pending layoffs, especially in companies heavily involved in the utility-scale sector. A disturbing note in the Solar Foundation report is that “jobs went up in 29 states with emerging solar markets.”
These states—Texas and much of the southeast and Midwest—are the states that were just becoming cost-competitive in the previous two years. The increasing cost of solar modules as a result of the Trump tariff will devastate solar development in these states—and others—in 2018 and beyond. My stomach is in knots at the thought of what these already depressing numbers will metastasize into in next year’s report.
This is what happens when you have a president who inexplicably allows the interests of two foreign-owned companies to hold the American solar industry hostage, creating volatility and uncertainty in a market that needed steadiness. So, although nothing can destroy the solar industry, these Trump tariff wounds are going to take time to heal—time many of the displaced workers don't have.
Tony Clifford is the CDO of Standard Solar and member of the SEIA Board of Directors
A week on the west coast is catching up, jet lag and getting new work done is shortening the summaries you are expecting. More on my current consulting work coming next week, excited to share this with you soon. Don’t forget to meet up at future events including COSEIA and Midwest Solar Expos.
NRG 360 Complete. It seems like yesterday when David Crane, the then CEO at NRG, wrote his memo on seeing the future for NRG to be away from coal and dirty fuels. After years of attempting the 180, the current CEO has had to acquiesce to activist investors and sold off controlling share in the NRG Yieldco and raised further cash selling the renewable energy unit. This is all quite complicated but the NRG renewable energy unit is worth quite a bit of money, which shows where we’ve come. In a week where two yieldcos have gone private for significant sums, solar plays in the big leagues but will do so in a more private setting.
EIA Doh. The EIA is an official joke. In the annual energy outlook there are two numbers that I find laughingly silly. By 2050, EIA expects solar to be 14% of total generation. More ridiculous is that EIA believes that 19% of car sales will be electric and hybrid cars in 2050. Both of those expectations are more in line with 2030 or even 2025. If 75% of car sales in 2050 aren’t electric or hybrid, I would be amazed.
EU Joins Everyone Else. Who isn’t taking the US to the WTO?
Do You Blockchain? Catch the latest podcast here and my conversation about blockchain. Short and to the point, it’s a good introduction to the topic. Rate on iTunes if you want to help me out.
Presented by Aten Solar. Experts in adding value to your supply chain and procurement. Aten Solar is your go-to source for the best closeout pricing on new and surplus modules for your project needs. They still have limited modules available at pre-tariff pricing, visit atensolar.com for details.
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