Chapter 11. PG&E has filed for chapter 11 reorganization. This is the second time in less than 20 years that one of the largest investor owned utilities, with a monopoly handed to them by the State, has filed for bankruptcy protection. The company listed $71billion in assets and $51billion in liabilities.
Newsom Reacts. “PG&E today filed for reorganization in federal bankruptcy court. That was PG&E’s choice but it does not change my focus, which remains protecting the best interests of the people of California. My administration will continue working to ensure that Californians have access to safe, reliable and affordable service, that victims and employees are treated fairly, and that California continues to make forward progress on our climate change goals.”
My View. The issues related to PG&E are multi-faceted. First and foremost is public safety, the operator of the grid in the service area needs to do everything possible in building and maintaining a safe grid while understanding the climate change reality that will make wildfires highly likely. Next come the consumers and residents in California. What should they expect from their utility in return for handing over the monopoly which is worth tens of billions of dollars. Given that the utility controls who has access to and the speed of access for things like renewables, what kind of partner is the grid to the consumers goals in fighting climate change? Last is the relationship between consumers that want choice in energy and the transmission portion of the utility. Given the 21st century technologies and options for consumers, is it time for a reset to the monopoly model?
Post Chapter 11. As outline in the chapter 11 filing, PG&E is filing for bankruptcy in anticipation of future liabilities from the 2018 wildfires. These liabilities are largely the difference between the insurance coverage and actual damages. In short, it seems that PG&E was underinsured for the potential risks it faced. This is where the regulators and Governor need to step in and represent the consumers. Some people that lost everything could find themselves being shorted on their damages because of the PG&E bankruptcy. This is the opening that the Governor need to fulfill both of his goals as he outline in the comment above. First, ensure access to reliable service that treats consumers fairly while ensuring progress towards climate change. Through the monopoly regulation, the government will have concurrent jurisdiction on the proceedings, and keep a seat at the table.
The Structure. In order to achieve the goals desired by the legislature, Governor and consumers, the integrated monopoly model needs to glide towards an end. Other states have done this through deregulation where the IOU is focused on building and maintaining the transmission grid. For the solar space it means that the utility would operate the highway that we seek access to and in some instances priority access to the grid both in front of and behind the meter. PG&E is already (basically) out of the generation business so this would be an easy part of the reform. Then PG&E would step out of the retail service business and competition would start at the consumer level, this is already happening with CCAs and could be increased. My last reform would be around the ownership of the utility itself. Given that any reorganization effort would require legislation that would indemnify the utility from wildfire risk, the utility can no longer be owned by 3rd party shareholders. If the ratepayers have to carry the risk they should reap the benefits of proper management. The model for this type of ownership is the cooperative, a successful model running across the Country. PG&E customers would own the grid and would be able to drive the priorities that align with their goals. Through CAISO’s leadership, the new PG&E would enable renewable and energy storage integration and provide retailers a stable market to provide great electricity services to customers.
But Be Real. Risk taking and changes aren’t going to come easy, the Governor is still moving in and the legislature is upset after having bailed PG&E out last year. No-one is in a rush to make changes tomorrow.
Solarcoaster. Cypress Creek is showing that PURPA solar is hard and is cutting the team by 20%. Some of this was evident from the plethora of bounced emails I got yesterday morning. If you were affected by layoffs and looking for help, please send me an email and I will connect with folks throughout the sector. We’re a solar family and I’ll do my part to help.
Supporting Net Metering. A presidential candidate, Elizabeth Warren, name checks net metering at a rally. This may not be the first candidate that understands the policy but it is the first to make a mention of the important policy that gives homeowners the ability to choose solar.
Yann
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Yann
Inside The Board Room. When a $50billion corporation goes down to $5billion and that corporation has captured customers through a monopoly, there are billionaires that chomp at the bit to get involved. Read the tick tock on the funds that are trying to get in and get out without catching the falling knife (and get stuck in a regulatory change of heart). This comes while one hedge fund is arguing hard against the bankruptcy filing even as the CPUC approved the $6billion DIP finance plan late yesterday and a PG&E spokesperson confirmed to ABC that the company still intends to file for chapter 11 on or about today, the 29th.
Exhibit A. Just in case you were wondering who is missing in the above conversation, it is the consumer. This shows the need for Governor Newsom to protect Californians from letting the financial interests be the sole driver of the process. Like it or not, this remains a political problem for Newsom and every other Governor that has an IOU in their State.
Auto OEMs Need New Blood. I understand that the Cadillac Chief Marketing Officer needs to say that they are committed to both EV and ICE cars in the future. But they know, I hope, that the future is all EV except for non-standard use cases. The CMO should be secure enough to tell the story of the vision and excite consumers about the electric Cadillac Escalade.
EIA Needs To Wake Up. EIA is out with a report about electric cars that says internal combustion will be the dominant vehicle mid-century. I am sure that EIA serves an important function but the estimating of future uses of electric vehicles is way off base for them. More importantly, how can they accurately forecast energy consumption if they view the future where transportation is still dominated by oil powered vehicles, not self driving electric drones?
Good Points. On the topic of environmental justice and why we need more Patagonias. Both worth a read this morning.
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PG&E Monday Update. Late last week, PG&E was cleared from last year’s Tubb Fire by Cal Fire’s investigation. This should clear much of the potential financial liability and is the reason behind the bump in the stock price. Note that much of the buying of the stock is by short term investors looking for the volatility, not the usual institutional investors seeking stable returns typical in utilities. Almost two weeks ago, PG&E notified the State that it would file for chapter 11 on the 29th of January. Whether this still happens is up in the air. Here’s a sidenote, this is a symptom of the monopoly utility model problem. IOUs were given monopolies by the States to access low cost private capital. If the IOU relies on their credit rating to provide a service to consumers, an IOU with junk credit isn’t deserving of the monopoly. For another option to utility business model, listen to my conversation with the CEO of Connexus Energy, a cooperative utility where the shareholder is the customer.
The Joint Jurisdiction. Prior to the chapter 11 filing, NextEra asked FERC to get involved in case that PG&E were to try and cancel contracts with power producers, solar included. FERC responded by saying that those contracts are under the joint jurisdiction with the bankruptcy court. This bankruptcy isn’t a standard financial and legal because of the regulatory oversight at every level, keep that in mind when you read the headlines.
Newsom’s Next Move? Newsom should look towards FERC as the precedent for increasing his seat at the table. I realize that this is a political problem that was not planned for (or warranted some might say) and may be an issue that his administration would rather leave in the bankruptcy courts and at the CPUC. However, with the future of decarbonization in play, a worried set of labor unions and lives at stake, Newsom can still appoint a special cabinet position to ensure that the State of California and the consumers have a say in the process. Who will brief the governor and the legislature about the internal process? Who will ensure that consumers don’t get the short end of the stick? This week I will outline how I see this playing out, not just for PG&E but every integrated IOU in the Country.
If You Know Robo. You know that the following statement, said during the NextEra earnings call, would have gotten you banned from the executive building if said out loud just ten years ago. But this is a direct quote from NEE CEO Jim Robo, “We continue to believe that this [solar plus storage} will be massively disruptive to the nations generation fleet and create significant opportunities for renewable growth well into the next decade.”
Thank You Solar and Senator Reid. The US is exporting oil, which is solely due to the removal of the oil export embargo. And for that, you have to thank Senator Reid and solar because that was the trade for the ITC extension.
Yann
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Back For More Solar News Monday. Have a great weekend!
Yann
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Yann