Welcome To 2020. I am flying back to San Francisco today after a week back in Florida. More content and coverage coming as soon as the routine kicks back off. Reminder that you can always email me by clicking reply any morning with news and information about your solar work.
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Yann
The Mandates. I don’t like the word mandate but that is what the new home solar legislation in California is. The reality of the policy is that solar installed during new home construction is exponentially more cost effective than a one-off retrofit at a later date. Look for this policy to go farther in 2020 and beyond. The market will drive this as well once home builders realize that this generates instant value for the home buyer.
Where Is EVs Trade Org? EVs are coming fast and consumers want them but the market isn’t ready for changes. The OEMs don’t appear to be coordinating a policy path in DC and in the States, the closest I’ve seen comes from the charging companies. The opposition to EVs will come from labor, mechanics, and oil majors amongst others. There are trillions of dollars in play that will shift industries. This comes before the adaptation of self-driving cars which will decimate insurance premiums in due time.
Community Solar In 2020. Community solar programs are a huge success and are oversubscribed anywhere they are enacted. It also bridge the best of all of solar where distributed installers match homeowners with large scale developers and tech companies. This should be a big year for the market.
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Yann
Happy New Year! Welcome to the 2020 decade. Hard to imagine what solar looks like in 10 years. But let’s try. What is your biggest prediction for the end of the year and the end of the decade? Hit reply to this email and send me your thoughts, the best ones make it on.
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Was It The Skinny Package? Not that it matters much at this point but here is an additional level of information from the ITC showdown. Senate negotiators apparently walked into a White House looking to kill all tax extenders. This did not bode well for the Senate which promptly pulled out their skinny package, i.e. what the chairman wants. So when the biodiesel and wind credit goes through, you can imagine the senior senator from Iowa is somewhat content. Unfortunately for solar it appears that the power exerted on the legislative bodies wasn’t enough to get the skinny inclusion this time.
No Time For MOPR. FERC may be creating the biggest change in power markets in the history of the solar market. Through their minimum price mechanism, renewables that receive state support will have to clear at a higher price allowing generation like gas and coal to clear below that level. This means that consumers will artificially pay more for the most cost effective generation available and still be on the hook for the societal costs of polluting generation. In short, this is a giant subsidy for generating plants that are no longer viable and something the Trump administration has been after for 3 years. Much more to come but some Twitter commentary says that capacity markets could close or states leave their markets altogether.
Your Coal For The Holidays. As we celebrate Christmas and Hanukkah, you get the coal subsidy with the return of the incandescent light bulbs which the administration is bringing back to life. Doubt the market will get on board with that…Happy Holidays!
Programming Note. Today will be the last SolarWakeup edition of the year and the decade. I appreciate everything that you do and your readership over the past 7 years. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year! I will see you in the next decade as the Earth (and I) get one year older.
Opinion
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Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann