Be Heard. Participate in this crucial survey, this week’s data is showing a large disparity between what is going and where. Maximize the data by joining in.
Trackable Market Data. When coronavirus first hit the US I knew that I wanted to track sentiment and sales on a weekly basis. From sales to install we also have permit data which is usually not tracked in real-time. The best data source for this in the US is my friend Chris from Ohm Analytics. Ohm Analytics has leveraged its data sources and capabilities to track solar activity on a weekly basis. Ohm is providing access to this feature for the time being to help the industry navigate the next several months. Ohm's Weekly Solar Activity Tracker will monitor solar permit and other available records in a sampling of the largest cities and counties in major solar states. This is a major data tracker that Ohm is making available for free for now and should drive you to subscribe to their fuller data set or sign up as a contractor. Thank you to Ohm for making this happen and letting SolarWakeup show it to the market.
A Bill Today? Late last night, negotiators appeared to get closer to a deal in package 3. This package is nearing $2TRILLION dollars and whether the solar ITC is part of it is up to a handful of people. In case you are wondering if it’s part of the discussion, just ask McConnell. He had some choice words about solar.
Are You Facetiming? I want to talk to solar installers still selling but without meeting their customers face to face. Do you have a unique approach or concept? I want to hear about it.
The Essential Industries. In California, many of you asked me about the various orders from County and State officials and where solar installers fit in. The state rules around essential and federal definitions of critical sectors leave room for interpretation, which is why we have strong trade groups like CALSSA to provide guidance. In their well crafted memo, they lay out clear language for you to use for your business. Keep in mind, stay safe and use your judgement, this isn’t a free pass to act like all is normal. While you’re here, representing solar industry isn’t free. If you benefit from California solar and storage policies, join CALSSA and let them know I sent you!
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Yann
Tracking Corona’s Impact. Here is this week’s tracking survey for you to fill out. This is for everyone in the solar industry and it takes 2 minutes. If you fill it out, you get the full set of results. Please take the time and share it with your colleagues as well.
ITC In Play. Over the weekend I sent a special alert and you responded. No link in SolarWakeup history got clicked on more and you forwarded almost 10,000 times to friends and colleagues. Your involvement could mean the difference for solar as Congress addresses a stalemate at the Capitol. The Politico story will be stale by the time you see it but stay tuned to see if solar gets included in the 3rd stimulus bill coming out, likely today. Topping over $1.5Trillion, hard to fathom solar being left out.
Managing Your Business. The CEO of Soligent posted a well crafted powerpoint on things to consider as you run your business. I think Jon makes some important points and it’s worth your time to review his recommendations. At this moment, it’s crucial we all absorb as much information and advice as we can. These are uncharted waters for all of us.
Looking At The EV Future. A bright moment coming out of the shutdown is we get to see what the future looks like. Around the world, pollution is down and dolphins are swimming in the clear waters of Venice. In Los Angeles, there is a clear reduction in pollution in the air, likely caused by the lack of cars. Hence our need to convert to EVs as soon as possible, no cars and EVs are basically the same when it comes to pollution especially when combined with a 100% RPS.
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Moment Of Levity
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Yann
Survey Results, Installers. Installers are reporting that closed sales are down 25.1% from their weekly average in Q1, still operating at 74.9% close rates.
30%. of them are saying that some customers have canceled or postponed projects.
44.8%. say that building departments have closed or delayed inspections.
Homeowner’s Buying Sentiment. 35.7% waiting for things to calm down while 28.6% worried about the economy and can’t make the commitment and 17.9% proceeding with business as usual.
The Loan Market. There are no changes to the loan market, rates and underwriting standards have not adjusted, tracking this closely to see how it changes.
Market Sentiment. 48% are no longer in a position to sell because they sell door to door or via appointments and 45% will experience a cash crunch without new business coming in. 38% say that their existing backlog will continue to fund their operations while 29% will reduce their workforce.
Suppliers. 35% of installers are worried that suppliers, distributors and manufacturers will not be able to deliver product as expected or promised.
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Yann
The Permit Problem. According to the SolarWakeup tracking survey, 44% of installers are seeing building department close or delay inspections due to COVID-19. It is understandable that the situation is happening and at the same time an opportune time to talk about how solar should be permitted. Solar permits should be automated and instant, we already have the software tools at our disposal that create the drawings installers need to follow in order to build code compliant solar. If the software were vetted by a building department or state regulator, as long as the installer followed the plans, they should be able to build the system right away. Inspectors could choose to video conference the inspection with the installer or spot check the system at a later date, if the installer fails to do it correctly they would be thrown off the instant permit system and risk losing their license. If there was ever a time to create a digital bridge between solar installers and AHJs, the time is now.
Solar Is An Essential Business. There is a reason that solar installers need to be able to keep working. While sales will transition to remote, phone and video calls, installations are safe to proceed without contamination risk. Imagine if this crisis was happening in a few months when the risks of wildfires start back up? Just yesterday there was a major earthquake in Salt Lake City. Solar installers across the Country are adding solar and storage that make homeowners self-reliant and eliminate the risk of power shutoffs for at risk population. It is crucial that solar continues to install safely while maintaining social distancing. In the Bay Area, most of the counties have put a shelter in place order in force that excludes essential businesses. For me, it is very clear that solar is and should continue to be able to work in order to allow the preparation for wildfire season to continue.
The Problem With The Data. Most of us are feeling a level of uneasiness that we have never felt before, I feel it too. With three kids at home, and the prospects of no school for the next 5 months, I don’t know what happens from here. Here is my biggest problem with all of this, we need bigger data. In this vast country of 300 million people we have 60,000 people tested and 8,700 positives. That’s a terrible data set to make decisions on, for our country, society and industry we need to make the right decision based on the right data. If it means we have to shut everything down for 30 days, so be it but let’s stop messing around without knowing the facts.
Thank You. The first SolarWakeup tracking survey was a success. The results will be published tomorrow and every Friday from here on out. On Sunday each week, you will receive a link to the next survey and I hope more of you decide to participate going forward. Knowing what is happening in the market will get us to a point where we can speak with data to politicians on how they can help us through this troubled time. More to come.
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Yann