The Survey Results. The pandemic is starting to hit the solar industry, big increases in furloughs and terminations as well as delayed payables in the overall ecosystem. Thanks again for participating in the survey and passing the newsletter on to your colleagues. If anyone has success getting approved for the SBA paycheck protection program, please let me know.
New Sales Down. For the 3rd week in a row, new sales last week dropped 50% when compared to the average sales volume from Q1 pre-COVID. This is a further reduction from the 33% drop we saw in last week’s survey.
Building Departments Adjusting. While over 75% of you said that building departments had closed or delayed inspections, 42% are now seeing no-touch permitting and FaceTime inspections. Please share this data with your local trade group as they aggregate this information.
Adjusting Expenses. Some (43%) have had to lay off or furlough employees and more (36%) are seeing potential for more in April or May. This could be stemmed with the SBA payroll protection loan that is supposed to launch today (but likely isn’t)
Your Question. I asked what question you wanted to see in next week’s survey and over 50% of you asked about the ITC extension. In my conversation with you, it is clear that you want to see it in the next stimulus bill and want to know what strategy is being used to push this. You and I can do our part by contacting our member of Congress. If an actual call to action crosses my desk, I assure you that I will pass it on. I was saddened to see the ITC left out of package 3 and it worries me to see the administration trying to bail out the oil industry without further legislation but I shall keep my optimism alive.
Have a great weekend! Stay healthy!
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Yann
Call Me Commish. Yesterday was the best April fools joke of my life. No, I will not be a PSC commissioner and yes I will continue to do this newsletter, you are stuck with me! I woke up in a panic, I live in California which means that a lot of you get this newsletter at 4am my time. Your texts and hundreds of emails made me realize that for some reason you thought I would be nominated by the Governor AND be able to get confirmed. I would actually love to be a PSC commissioner at some point but that time is not now. The panic came from the realization that maybe I overstepped the time we are living in and taking advantage of days blending together, but I got to see what an exit would look like and thank you! So next year, know that an April fools is coming again but this will be hard to top.
If You Need. If you used my announcement and by chance forwarded it to your boss or colleagues without fact checking, I’m sorry. If you want me to call your boss and explain just let me know! If you wrote analysis on the opportunity of solar because I’m on the PSC, please let me read it. I want to see how far in the pocket of solar you all think I am!
Back To Business. Things are really bad in the oil markets especially in Texas. Tens of thousands of oil jobs are at risk of being lost by the double black swan events coming together in corona and the Saudi/Russia collision. WTI traded below $20/barrel yesterday and global consumption is down bigly. With oil CEOs coming to the White House I would expect the White House to go big on a bailout. Look at CNBC’s Jim Cramer calling this a major economic risk.
What This Means For Solar. Trump tweeted about the impending infrastructure week and the current low interest rates. He’s also right that infrastructure spending would be vital to keep business flowing across the Country. Chamath Palihapatiya was on Kara Swisher’s Recode Decode and said it best, “right now, everyone gets everything they want.” From a political standpoint, I think oil execs should hug solar to stop the positioning that the Senate GOP is taking that package 4 isn’t required and ‘green’ topics shouldn’t be included. Oil doesn’t care if solar gets something or everything, they are in dire need of help and don’t care about the quo to their quid.
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Yann
Market Data. Yesterday I joined Roth capital to talk about the survey results, which you can see for yourself by going here after you participate. I am glad to see that this platform has been helpful to others in making business decisions, moving forward with their business plans and getting through the pandemic. We will do this again in a few weeks, with the intention to track the depth and duration of the slowdown as governments continue to work through their local plans. Please pass the survey along your network and it is important to participate each week, I promise we will stop doing this when we are back to normal. Link
SolarAPP Is Rolling. I caught up with Birchy from OpenSolar (ex Sungevity CEO), who’s been championing SolarAPP for the past 2 years, as the solution to reduce solar costs in the US. Following up from my editorial on Friday that we need SolarAPP faster given that many solar jobs are on hold or stalled, Birchy shared some positive news. Work started last week to accelerate the deployment of SolarAPP as a response to COVID driven restrictions in permit approvals. The SolarAPP consortium is going to expand the pilot to many more communities than planned, to provide a solution for AHJs to approve solar system permits without office based processing. If systems are installed by accredited installers using certified systems and installing to code, they would be eligible for automated permitting, subject to spot-checking and quality assurance by the AHJ. In the near-term emails and video call efforts are still necessary to keep projects moving, but the automated permitting tool will be released in beta as a solution for AHJs to grant permits of solar systems in the next few months - and this will be the new nationwide 'best-practice’ process created by NREL in consultation with the code and safety organizations representing key stakeholders. NREL has just launched the new solarAPP web page and I encourage you to sign up to stay in touch for this key initiative. You can stay informed about progress of this project, and register for an up-coming webinar that will discuss how communities can get involved in testing. Solar installers should encourage their AHJs to attend the webinar as well. This could be a real solution that can address a critical COVID response needed over the coming months, but also be a path to solving the bigger cost reductions achieved in all other international markets where residential solar installs at under $1.50/W largely due to non-existent soft costs.
No-Touch In The Meantime. I am excited and wish that SolarAPP would happen overnight but in the meantime let us help our State associations with information and outreach to AHJs. If you are in California, you can check out the CALSSA AHJ database on their current status, update it if you find different information and educate your teams on this. Then you should participate in and ask your building department contacts to join in a webinar on how building departments can enable no-touch permitting and remote inspections.
Tracking Current Permits. It is also time to see this week’s update on permit issuance for solar from across the Country. While the SolarWakeup survey tracks sentiment, sales and business strategy, our friends at Ohm Analytics are doing amazing work (temporarily for free) on showing you permits in major metros. Here’s my takeaway, building departments are either dipping to zero or close to it but then bouncing back, which tells me that they are creating a new process for processing the backlog. I’ll be watching to see what stays at zero and how close to the former average it bounces back to.
Payroll Protection. In case you were looking for it, SBA released the draft application for the payroll protection program.
Last Word. And now some bittersweet news. Next week will be the last week for the SolarWakeup daily newsletter, at least in this format. After 8 years, I have finally been tapped for a work assignment that doesn’t allow me to continue on. It is with great pleasure that I want to tell you that I’ve been nominated to join the Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) as its newest commissioner. More on this soon and I hope you will join me in thanking the community we’ve built together over almost 3,000 newsletters.
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Yann
Tracking Survey. This morning I am joining Roth Capital on a conference call with investors to discuss the results of the past two week’s tracking survey. If you’re interested in the results from this week, fill out your responses today. This takes 60 seconds and provides feedback about the market and legislators looking to see what to focus on. Link.
Trouble In Texas. Oil companies are having issues keeping their businesses afloat. This comes due to a double dilemma of Coronavirus and OPEC’s price slashing. Oil prices are down dramatically and oil companies want a bailout in the form of a major purchase by the federal government and likely more.
Setting The Stage. The problem with the bailout, a $3billion purchase adding to the strategic petroleum reserve, is that Congress needs to approve it and didn’t include it in the last stimulus bill. Much like the 2016 ITC extension which was traded for the oil embargo lifting, democrats in Congress are calling for solar to also get support alongside oil.
Op-Ed Battles. Kevin McCarthy and Newt Gingrich are trying to counter the negotiation from a position of political minority. They are claiming that industry support is being held up by radical requests for a green new deal in time of crisis. Don’t fall for this, just last week the EPA is using the pandemic as an excuse to relax environmental standards and rollback of regulations that protect the environment.
Political Reality. Now is the time to stay in touch with your member of Congress and give them the details of the issues facing your business. Tell them what an ITC extension, grant in lieu and inclusion of storage means to you as a solar professional. You want them to make solar support a non-negotiable, especially in this time of crisis, not in spite of it. I don’t doubt that oil will get their handout and more, solar is doing good work and keeping folks working.
Be Aware. CISA, a federal agency, released a memo that clearly states that solar is a critical sector. See it here.
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Yann