Press Release Day. If you’ve been reading SolarWakeup for awhile you know that I avoid press releases like the plague but not today. There are three announcements that came out yesterday (don’t release news on Thursdays) that you need to know about.
Tax Equity Getting Done. Sometimes the most interesting stories in the news don’t actually get covered in a meaningful way. $40million was raised in a tax equity partnership to own DC solar projects, a niche market that has its complications but can be profitable for those that do it right. Mike Healy of New Columbia Solar has been a longtime solar professional is behind the interesting transaction that is getting done right in the middle of a pandemic. So while you may not see it in regular coverage, trust me when I say that this deal getting done now is a strong message of optimism for solar. Not just that it’s getting done now but it’s DG, portfolio of assets and a market with policy complexity. Go into the weekend with a positive outlook.
Enphase Goes Commercial. Just when you’re getting used to the way things are, a headline makes its way to your screen. Enphase has been laser focused on residential market share growth and currently sits in second place according to GTM. Then comes this headline for a portfolio of commercial and multi family projects that is being designed with the flexibility of micro inverters. In a market that has been dominated by string inverters, the need for rapid shutdown and desire for unit level monitoring/optimization, is opening engineer’s minds to other options. I’ve spent the last week asking people around the industry, what solar looks like in 3 years but reading the headlines may be setting that stage.
Solaria Is Coming To Play. Solaria, the module manufacturer of aesthetically pleasing black modules, is adding senior leadership. In what seems like a change of leadership, it is, the new CEO and President actually represent a shift towards business strategy and execution. Like a choreographed business plan, Solaria released a 400W module a few months ago and now Tony Alvarez takes the CEO spot and Howard Wenger becomes President. Many of you know Wenger as a longtime staple in solar, former President of SunPower and one of the original solar policy advocates dating back to the 90s. Alvarez increases the Cypress Semiconductor leadership in solar adding to the many executives that joined Enphase from Cypress. Big moves for a big module, add this variable to your vision of the solar future.
So Is Solar. EIA data is showing that coal is on a major decline this year and renewables are adding to their gains in the energy mix. The data is compelling enough that New York Times covered the shift. That doesn’t stop a US Senator from North Dakota from publicly tweeting about saving a coal plant that neither ratepayers want to pay for (it is a financial loser) nor the utility wants to keep open. With Great River Energy planning the closure of the plant, Cramer wants to keep it open. First, I empathize with the community, the plant is in the middle of North Dakota and must be one of the major economic drivers of the community. That being said, what does it say about the coal industry that is bankrupting in real-time and does not answer any question related to capitalism? Even with its struggles, the industry is able to push political power to a US Senator’s twitter account.
What Do You Need? I’ve spoken to between 30 and 40 solar installers this week to answer this question. What is the biggest issue facing your business as you rebound and grow post pandemic? The industry is facing MAJOR margin stacking against it while also being the lifeblood to everyone in the ecosystem. Without a strong installer community no-one succeeds including distributors, financing companies, manufacturers or consumers. I’m one person with a newsletter but if I learned anything over the passed 15 years, we need a strong market to be a profitable market.
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Yann
History Lesson. David Freeman wasn’t a name that I was familiar with before yesterday but the name means a lot to those that have been in solar longer than me and they shared some of those thoughts with me and I thought you should hear them as well. David passed away this week at the age of 94. He led TVA, LADWP and SMUD during his career in power. The solar overlap includes the original SMUD PV Pioneer program which started the path to the million roof initiative that California celebrated late last year. Some have told me that much of California’s solar success wouldn’t have been able to get to where it is today without his leadership.
Job Growth Halted. The pandemic is having its impacts on jobs around the Country including clean tech. According to the latest report by ACORE, 600,000 jobs have been lost in the industry. Not only is it impacting those sidelined from the construction jobs but it is also impacting really good employees on a more than temporary basis. We need to find the bold policy initiatives that will catapult the market back into growth mode and get people back to work as soon as possible.
AOC Picks Climate. There was question about if and how AOC would get involved in the Joe Biden campaign and we got the answer. She is co-chairing the climate change campaign committee with John Kerry. It highlights the importance that the issue has in the campaign especially for the ‘young people’ that AOC and Sanders were targeting during the campaign. It also means that Biden is willing to be pushed far on energy/climate change issues.
The Pod On Spotify. For those that asked, and thank you for doing it, SolarWakeup Live! The podcast is now available on Spotify. Do your thing and share it with friends and colleagues. We had an informative and forward looking interview with Andy Klump from CEA this week and next week will have my interview with Rob Newman from Nearmap to talk about how you never have to get on a roof to measure again.
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This Week’s Podcast. I talk with Andy Klump from Clean Energy Associates (CEA). CEA works with companies to help them procure and quality check equipment like modules and batteries. Andy usually lives in Asia but is currently stateside while the pandemic keeps most of us in our homes. I spoke to him about the status of factories, how to make sure you get the best quality equipment, and what would happen if the ITC grant requires domestic content. He also makes some bold predictions about where prices for modules could go. Check out the episode and do us a favor by subscribing and rating.
Elon’s Alameda Drama. There is going to be a time in 2020 where the location of your business has an outsized impact on the success of your business. Tesla’s Fremont factory is going through that now. I’m not saying that Alameda is right or wrong, that’s for others to opine on, but the fact that the factory is in Alameda versus Michigan or 30 something other California Counties means that the factory is still not operational. The same is true for solar installers which lacks coordination with science. Bay Area counties are letting solar with storage be installed but not without storage. That means that installing solar in this area is locationally bad for business.
Time To Buy. Engie is out and public about wanting to do more in US energy storage, renewables and offshore wind. Engie has been one of the most active corporate investors in the market and if anything they see now as an opportune time to do more.
The Pivot Is On. The biggest reason there is a delay in getting you the results from last week’s survey is that there is now a distinct difference between installers that are investing in pivoting to new tools and processes while spending more on lead generation. The good news is that we are seeing the best levels of sales since the start of the pandemic. As installers, now is the time work together in friendly competition and find that the combined volume of the marketplace gives you the power.
SolarWakeup Is Hiring. Early bird gets the worm, a job posting will be going live next week for inside sales at SolarWakeup. If you know someone interested or interested yourself, send me a note.
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Post Pandemic Impact. In reality the entire rundown today could have been some version of ‘COVID recovery needs to be climate solution’. This is the overlap of politics, regulations and economics that has an impact on our work beyond the recovery. Realists will say, nothing will change, I even said it to someone on a call yesterday. But the answer is that there is more to politics than what Senator McConnell wants because 50 States also look to find a way to get Americans back to work. Permitting can be a federal act of congress or it could be driven by your state and local leaders as one example.
Buffett’s Day In The Sun. A week after Buffett said he regrets his $10billion oil investment there is a double headline day for Berkshire, both from an off taker perspective. NV Energy’s project with Arevia Power got the green light from the feds while Pacificorp is readying a huge RFP for renewables. While this isn’t the sunniest region for the most part, there is no doubt that the storage aspect of the RFP is going to be breaking records and could make for interesting timelines and modeling around the ITC.
It’s a Global Market. I looked at the global inverter market share and had to do a double take for two reasons. First, 2019 found 126GW of solar installed around the world. Second, there are a lot of names on the list that don’t make a mark in the US market. That either means there is much more upside for US leaders abroad or for the market share list in the US to change.
Talking Solar. Join me next Tuesday on a call with Roth Capital’s Phil Shen. This is the 4th call we’ve had together since the pandemic started and created a lot of clarity for those that dialed in including a Q&A segment. You can register for the free call here.
Sending Good Thoughts. All of you know Frank Andorka, long time solar writer and former rock star solar correspondent at SolarWakeup. Frank has been in a battle with COVID-19 for over a month including a multi-week stay in the ICU near his home in Ohio. Frank recently moved out of the ICU but remains in the hospital. Please keep Frank in your thoughts and prayers, remembering that this pandemic is indeed close to us all in one way or another. Find him on Facebook, if you wish to reach out directly and leave him a kind note.
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Yann