Things Will Change. As the weeks of the pandemic move along, I am coming to realize that we don’t know what is going to happen in the future. There are predictions about peak carbon, peak oil and I’ve personally written about how the energy use will be redistributed with more people working from home. When will you get on a plane again and do you expect to work from home in 2021? These questions will drive much of what changes or not. For the solar industry, there is little that points to lower energy consumption in the home as opposed to the past. Self-reliance and backup generation will likely grow in importance during the sales cycle but the solar industry will not be alone in approaching this market with solutions. Utilities, generators and efficiency will also pursue the opportunity, look at how quick Generac was to get into California with generators during the wildfire crisis last year and with two acquisitions made themselves a real player in solar as well. The point is that every data point from every over analyzed consultant is based on a changed set of variables and the oil companies are front and center as well. No-one is driving and planes are grounded, oil usage is down and the postcard from the future has arrived in the form of a Mack truck. A world that doesn’t use oil at the same levels was something ESG and sustainability executives have been saying for years and predicted it would come some day. Oil companies must adjust they said, invest in solar and wind and batteries. How does an oil company get into the renewables space overnight and replace billions in quarterly profits? How would you do it? Can it be done? I don’t know who and how and where the battle by the big market will play out, but here is one thing that I am certain about. Those of you that service the homeowner, whether as a local installer, a regional one or a national player on the top 10 list, that market is going to top $20billion, $50billion and more. Today that market is slow, inefficient and lacks the transparency you expect in vibrant marketplaces. That will change with the growth and success of many, so things will change for everyone everywhere. For those of us fortunate enough to be in solar, hang on tight.
Catch Up. Subscribe to the podcast, no pod released today. Download the full survey results from the past 8 weeks. Catch the webinar with OpenSolar about digital solar operations and virtual selling.
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Yann
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Rumor Has It. You may have seen that Enphase stock slipped by over 10% at the start of trading yesterday. A major company shareholder is Chilean investor South Lake One LLC, an entity controlled by Quiroga Moreno Isidoro. Controlling as much as 13.5million shares after a buying spree of over 1.2million shares in November 2019 at a price just under $20. Isidoro participated in a fundraising round in February 2018 when he purchased 9.5million shares for $2.10 a piece. The rumor, which is well sourced at this point, is that he has sold his entire stake in Enphase for around $61 per share. This is typical, many early investors will sell some or all of their stake in companies when they have completed their phase into success. $2 to $61 is quite the investment for a 2 year period and his shares found new investors at these levels. This marks a key date in the corporate history of Enphase, what will the company do in their next growth phase?
Because You Asked. Not that it matters because it doesn’t influence my writing nor the stock prices. I own shares in basically every solar company including Enphase and Solaredge. I don’t pick winners, I am picking the solar industry as a winner and believe that those investments will be worth a lot more when my kids go to college than today. So if you work at a solar company, public or private, I’m rooting for your success at all times.
Tesla Energy Trading. Here’s the answer to anyone asking whether Tesla or any other battery company is better on energy trading. The answer is yes, absolutely. They are also betting and advocating that the grid will reward speed of power generation, revenue stacking and growth of monetization for microgrids. As revenue streams for batteries increase so does the development and integration of those technologies.
Have A Great Weekend. Stay safe and if it weren’t for the COVID situation I would invite you all over to help me pack the container!
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Yann
Go West, Then Back East. Last week I told you about the end of my tenure as CEO of Quick Mount PV, by far the highlight of my career and a great sign that residential solar is a booming part of the market. Many of you have asked me what’s next and that answer will be clearer to me over the summer. What I do know about what’s next is that my family and I are moving back to Florida. We love California and loved being at the center of the solar industry. In a world where you live near your work, living in Walnut Creek was perfection. In a time of COVID, and flying cross-country is not feasible, we are choosing to live closer to family. So in a few weeks we will be trucking across the Country back to the Sunshine State. Over the coming weeks, I plan to spend as much time as possible talking to you about the market, what’s working, what’s not and look to identify the question about what’s next professionally. In the meantime, I want to help you in any way possible whether that is helping you refine your procurement strategy, connecting you with new capital sources or if you lost your job find a new one.
Full Survey Results. After 6 weekly tracking surveys over the past 8 weeks, the full result tabulation is available for review. You can see them here.
Early Stage Investments. Looking ahead beyond 2021, I realize that the reality of ITC sunset to 10% is possible. So I ask the many investors and IPPs on this distribution list, who is funding and taking a long term view on greenfield development for large scale solar. The strategy was a gold mine for many ten years ago, I want to hear from those with the thesis that it will be once again going forward.
Universities Divesting, Go Solar. The University of California board of regents is divesting the university system from fossil fuels. Not only is this good for the environment, it is good investment strategy. There is an important addition to the strategy in my opinion, universities need to follow with large scale solar procurement. I want to see every university in the Country entering into 100MW contracts.
In Your Neighborhood. The last survey showed big growth in building departments offering digital permitting and virtual inspections. Can you email me good and bad examples of how this is happening in your neighborhood? Tell me a city doing something innovative and we can spread the word.
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Yann