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Yann
First Reaction. Not terrible, not great. I.e., for some of us, it’s as bad as it could get, and for others, you can make it work. It’s not over yet, and I’m sorry that you have to deal with this. Unfortunately, elections have consequences, and the hope for bipartisan support for cheap electricity continues to elude us. The macros are all in favor of deploying all the solar we can, but we have to keep working. There will be a lot of GW of solar built if this is the version of the bill that heads to the White House, and energy storage is a decent upside in this version as well. Resi got shafted, which hurts my core, as many of you know, I have a weakness for advocating for distributed solar. Keep pushing, keep fighting.
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Here’s Johnny. Come lately that is. I’ve spent the weekend tempering my annoyance about something that happens all the time, especially in politics. As many of you know, I’ve largely been on the outside when it comes to policy movements in States and Federal affairs but have worked VERY closely with those that are in the weeds to help with messaging and activation when more people are needed. See, in politics, like in business, relationships matter and how you ask to get what you want depends on where you were when you didn’t need anything but the other side may have. So when, over the past few weeks, lone saviors come into DC to make demands on behalf of the solar industry, I get upset because they have the ability to make us all look bad. I won’t call them out, they are reading this and they know who they are, but if you weren’t going to fundraisers and meeting with staff a year ago, didn’t contribute to trade groups with your time AND MONEY, didn’t have dedicated federal affairs staff and lobbyists prior to this showdown, then stay away and let the professionals do their jobs, please. This is particularly the case if you are a large corporation that has profited handsomely over the past decade and absent on all investments to strengthen the solar industry.
Big Florida Win. Thanks to some friends and logical reasoning, I’m a big fan of automated permitting for residential solar, especially with strong standards on waterproofing, flashings and racking. Florida passed a regulation cutting law that the Governor signed that allows for SolarAPP+ to be used statewide, which is a huge win for an industry that needs it. Read about it in Wakeup friend, Justin Hoysradt’s LinkedIn post.
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The Gas Goal. There’s an obsession in DC that gas is the only thing that can be built, but with volatile gas markets and drop in oil prices, production is coming down. Reality is that over the next 5 years there are three things that can be built, and the status quo build rate will barely cover the need we have for retirement recovery. The gas plants that are already on order will be built and besides that solar and storage will cover the gap. There is much more solar that could get built, that extra representing the opportunity our Country has to own the AI future.
Who, What, Where, and How Much. Who can build the gas power plants? EPCs are scheduled out well past the end of the decade. What turbines can anyone order? Turbine OEMs are seemingly sold out until 2032 and tariffs are not helping feedstock costs. Where are the turbines made? While there is some domestic manufacturing, more scrutiny of largely offshore gas turbine manufacturing should be discussed. How much will the energy market pay for gas output? And who will pay for the unknown fuel costs for decades to come? Capacity prices will have to rise and energy prices are too low in some market meaning there is significant market signal lacking in order to achieve these goals.
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Yann