Problem With Battery Manufacturing. As T1 buys Kore Power, I’ll repeat something I have been saying for several years. The supply chain with storage is different at the first step compared to solar. Storage cells start degrading the very first day they come off the assembly line and solar cells & modules do not. This means that it will require just in time manufacturing and huge backlogs in order to keep the plant running. This is the inherent advantage that the auto OEMs have because there’s a dual use to the cell manufacturing (with scale) and the Chinese mega-suppliers that are also providing the cells to the box integrators. Much like solar, there will be significant consolidation in the supply chain but also a de-coupling of the vertical integration of the one-stop shop nature.
Too Many Suppliers. The residential market has been struggling with many things in recent years and losing the cash tax credit means that we have to confront one big reality. There are too many choices in the vendor landscape. Distributors that bankroll the project cashflows take their piece of the value but more importantly, having too many companies on the shelves means that the supplier landscape is riddled with mediocrity. The residential racking segment took care of itself with the consolidation at the hands of Enstall but the inverter market needs to shrink. I’m saying this as an advocate for the homeowner that really has little say to what gets installed and if they end up with a small supplier, or a newly launched product, they get stuck holding the bag later on. I’m personally affected by an orphaned system with a legacy supplier. I’m highlighting a launch today that probably means little to homeowners and isn’t changing the landscape one way or the other by being available. Installers and distributors need to shrink the menu of products to create a healthier marketplace, just my two cents.
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Yann
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Storage Is Hot and Complicated. The NXT deal to acquire Prevalon made quite the splash this weekend and by my text messages, a lot of you have questions about what it means. I don’t think that my thoughts would be adequately outlined in this short format but I may be open to hosting a short conference call if folks are interested on this topic and the overall status of the storage market. It’s quite similar to the early solar days, think LDK/SPI (if this rings any bells for some of you).
Pay Attention. Invest in Tomorrow Coalition is the PAC that is running with Don’t Mess with Solar and going after opponents and helping supporters in a smart, PAC kind of way. Tom Matzzie, a friend and savvy political operator is running the PAC now and certainly getting a lot of traction in the news. Don’t get it wrong, Chip Roy lost his race because of his attack on solar, he knows it but doesn’t want people to think that’s true. 10 years ago, solar hadn’t made really rich people in the space but that’s changed. There are hundreds of people that have made hundreds of millions and some have made billions in and from the solar industry. Time for the industry at every level to double down on the proof point that Tom and team are showing us all.
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