On Monday. I’ll have some commentary about the debate on Monday. Politico’s Michael Grunwald chimes in with a view of Biden’s choices if he wins. You’ll also get my 2021 expectations for the market, SolarWakeup has been pretty spot on with 2019 and 2020 forecasts. We’ll include a great new product addition to the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group showing the momentum that comes from helping installers increase margin.
Get That Money. What’s better than a solar job? A solar job that pays more than other job.
Supply Chains Will Adjust. Look for solar to quick pivot and make changes to ensure supply chain isn’t entangled with human rights concerns.
Tesla’s Energy Side. “We continue to believe that the energy business will ultimately be as large as our vehicle business.“ The company installed 57MW of solar and says that they did a solar roof install in 1.5 days. Here’s the deck, it’s light on things that aren’t cars or batteries.
Colorado Blaze. Thinking about our many friends in Colorado. This picture showed the gravity of the situation unfolding.
Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last.
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Yann
Less Is More. Australia is sending the solar postcard from the future. With over 20% of homes already with solar, storage going through the roof, the market is putting solar on homes at $1/watt with instant permitting and innovative inspection processes. You can order products directly from your software tool and get to work the day after signing the contract with e-signatures. With all of that rooftop solar, look at the demand data that shows an overall reduction.
Oceans Rise, Empires Fall. Some solar EPC is going to be hiring hundreds of workers to install a 400MW solar farm in Indiana, part of NIPSCO’s 900MW solar and storage plan. Indiana is a bellwether for me, and as I talked about with TJ Kanczuzweki, the midwest solar industry is ready to go. So here’s some words of wisdom from Hamilton’s King George of what the fossil empire thought was going to happen, and here we are. “You'll be back soon you'll see, You'll remember you belong to me, You'll be back time will tell, You'll remember that I served you well. Oceans rise, Empires fall.”
The EV Hummer. General Motors is bringing back the off-road line as an electric vehicle. This version misses the consumer but it’s another step towards the EV in every driveway future that will drive more demand in solar.
Why The Down Day? You may have seen your solar portfolio was down a good amount yesterday and that’s because there is a new wrinkle in silicon supply chain. This is largely caused by Obama’s original trade war with China that moved a lot of the silicon manufacturing to the Xinjiang. It appears the labor pool in Xinjiang could include some Uyghur risk. With the House passing a bill requiring supply chains to be clean of this human rights issue, this is going to cause some shifts in solar supply. If you want to get more info on this, Roth Capital is hosting a call with lawyers, silicon suppliers and SEIA this morning. You can register for the Zoom call here.
Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last.
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Yann
A Look Ahead. With Biden ahead in the polls a lot of talk is heading into the what if and how things would look in solar so let’s partake in the punditry on the various topics in today’s news.
Mad Money Returns To Solar. Jim Cramer is no stranger to talking about the next big thing in solar, here he is with David Crane 5 years ago. Couple of things are different today, solar has a lot more to offer in the public markets and some of the hottest stocks in solar have great positive cash flow, GAAP EBITDA and the benefits of a growing market. No doubt that the solar stocks are benefitting from the what if valuation that expect 2021 and beyond to be the start of the solar decade. If you listened to our market call yesterday you saw the underlying data that showed 2020 was off to a greater than 20% growth and lagged only from April to July and is back to 2019 levels. What’s happened at the same time is a massive growth of backlog both in residential contracts and interconnection queues.
Roofs And Parking Lots. This is the goal, how do we get solar on every roof and parking lot in the Country that has the technical potential for it. That’s what a Maryland siting report is confirming, we can meet a lot of the goals with existing infrastructure. For presidents, the first 100 days and getting actual results in the first term is key. For Biden, and planet earth, increasing the pace of solar construction at the start of the administration would be a key indicator of a change. And for executives, KPIs are a great way to measure success.
Climate Change, AKA King Tide. Miami has become one of the leading examples of how climate change will impact everyday life, we even have a word for it that doesn’t scare everyone. There are days in the month and times of the year when the water levels are so high that docks are under water and water comes out the storm drains. Right now, we are at the peak season and you wouldn’t believe it but roads to the most expensive beachfront homes in Broward County were closed. Why, you ask? The roads were underwater.
EPA Is Ground Zero. Trump’s EPA may be trying to change coal ash regulations but it’s doubtful that those regs would stay intact if Biden wins in a few weeks. The follow up to that is what might a Biden EPA do for coal ash regulations to have cleaner air and ultimately make sure that coal plants close at a much faster pace. Rumors of Inslee getting tapped for EPA administrator are a signal of where climate would reside from an executive function but names like Mary Nichols also open up the possibility that electrification of transportation is a priority as well.
Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last.
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Yann
Solar Permits Discussed. This morning at 10am eastern, join me on a conference call with Chris Collins from Ohm Analytics and Phil Shen from Roth Capital to talk about the trend of solar permitting from across the country. You can register (free) here.
More Racking Acquisitions. It looks like there is more welding of racking companies to happen according to reporting by PV-Magazine. This isn’t surprising, especially on the coattails of the Array Technologies IPO. One of the things that I hope gets revisited in the new administration is the removal of the aluminum tariffs for the raw commodity. This artificial increase in price has been the foundational reason for closing of US manufacturing plants by racking companies and that’s been a bad trend. Until recently, my former company (Quick Mount PV) made almost all of their products in their California plant, now closed by the new owners unfortunately. That being said, accessories to the growing solar markets are a great and profitable business.
How To Electrify. SolarWakeup’s friend and fellow CALSSA board member, Barry Cinnamon of Cinnamon Energy Systems, tells his story of electrifying his home in the Bay Area. Personally, I haven’t quite made it to full electrification at my home but anyone that hasn’t tried induction cooking is missing out. If you’re curious but want to be sold on it, you can get a plug in version for under $100. It does pose the question as to how solar installers will integrate (or not) generators in a generac system. It also becomes a topic of discussion for utilities looking for virtual power plants that include residential generators or grid charged electric vehicles.
Imagine The Memo. In a $10billion transaction ConocoPhilips is acquiring Concho Resources, resulting in one of the biggest footprints in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. It reminded me of a discussion I had with a former boss of mine about whether we should buy projects in Argentina. He said, we can only buy this project if we get our money back before the next election. Conoco must be asking itself how fast it can get its money out of this project with continued low pricing and a future where methane regulations, flaring prohibition and environmental inspections actually become a reality.
The LCOE Review. Here is your 14th annual LCOE report from Lazard and their 6.0 of the storage analysis. This annual report has been a long time trend line that shows solar getting cheaper. Here’s your prediction for version 15.0/7.0 and 1.0. Not only will things get cheaper, but more valuable. The 1.0 will be the combined value of both and the benefits it creates for their portion of the grid.
Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last.
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Opinions:
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Yann