The Solar Market Update. Today at 11am Eastern, I join Phil Shen of Roth Capital (subscribe to his newsletter), for our monthly resi solar market update. We’ll be talking about supply chain, financing, policy and of course, storage. You can register at this link.
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Yann
The Drought And Effect. The west is dry and while we all hope for the best, there are already worrisome signs of wildfires and lack of water for agriculture. The energy effect will be more power shutoffs than before and a grid that consumers will consider unreliable. Grid planners have not adjusted any major items to ensure new infrastructure is built out but if I were still living in California, I’d be making sure my solar and battery were ready for primetime.
Low Capacity Bailouts. Expect to see more bailout legislation coming out after the low capacity clearing price in PJM. Nuclear operators will be legislating towards ZREC policies that provide a kicker for their plants but always opens up opportunities to get a broader energy package passed.
SolarAPP+ Thanks. It has been a village to get SolarAPP+ to where it is today and there are many people that are integral to this process and without ignoring everyone’s efforts I want to call out one particular person. Andrew Birch, a co-founder of Sungevity and current co-founder of OpenSolar, first pitched me the idea of instant/uniform permit policy over 3 years ago on his patio in Alameda. He’s been tenaciously cheerleading the effort and getting the biggest names and companies in the solar business to spend time, money and sweat on the effort. I told him then that it would be an uphill climb, and some of you emailed me when I first brought you the idea agreed that it was crazy to think this was possible. So for having the willpower to bring an idea to fruition against all odds without ever asking for credit, here’s a token of appreciation from me.
Will Manchin Deliver? Joe Manchin remains unpopular but very powerful and in some ways is taking the infrastructure bill on his shoulders to bring a bipartisan support of the bill to reality. We’re getting very close to seeing whether he can deliver the votes and give Biden the bipartisan win his 47 years of government would assume he could get.
The Solar Market Update. Tomorrow, I join Phil Shen of Roth Capital (subscribe to his newsletter), for our monthly resi solar market update. We’ll be talking about supply chain, financing, policy and of course, storage. You can register at this link.
Opinion
News
Opinions:
Have a great day!
Yann
New Spending, No Tax Increase. Biden and Senate republicans are going back and forth on the infrastructure bill which will be massively popular with voters. Biden looks to give in on tax hikes as long as republicans agree with $1trillion of new spending. Senate dems are putting up a 10-day shot clock before making their case for doing it by reconciliation. Solar advocates say that ITC extension looks solid but issues around labor and domestic content remain, though outcomes appear workable.
Climate Warning Signs. Two independent transactions with high-profile names are getting into climate event prediction and analytics. I guess knowing that your house will flood before it floods can be considered a valuable data point. This also marks TPG’s Rise Fund’s first major investment announced since former Treasury secretary Hank Paulson joined the fund as executive chairman.
AB 1139 Defeated. This was a bad bill doing bad things that are completely counter to the market and climate goals in California. Moreover, legislation that undermines existing market rules would create a new risk analysis in solar that would have impacted all parts of the ecosystem. Led by CALSSA and it’s 600+ members plus allies, advocates came out and maneuvered the opposition to victory.
Talk About Capital. I’ll ask this on a high level with a promise to talk more about it with you in the near future. Solar and wind investors look for stable returns on contracted cash flow with conservative assumptions for tail revenue post contact term. Energy storage can play a role for solar+ contracts but what capital pool will be an investor in the merchant storage assets and how will a stand alone storage ITC get a tax equity deal done? Same pool of capital but higher hurdle rates or different capital all together?
Enjoy your weekend!
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Yann
Behind The Scenes. In this newsletter and my interactions with reporters in my professional capacity, I try to give a real account of what I am thinking and how I view the market opportunity. Part of joining FlexGen was being part of a team with Kelcy Pegler and joining a team at FlexGen that has been leading the energy storage market with expertise for over a decade. On the other hand, I was concerned about the timing of energy storage in the overall energy transition. I knew that storage was a crucial element of the transition but joining FlexGen was a decision made before the Texas freeze event which cemented the variables that influenced my decision and confirmed that the decision was a good one. My conversation with Andy Colthorpe from Energy Storage News gives you a view of how we view the market and the opportunities for everyone reading this to start adding storage to their pipeline right now too.
Exxon Loses Another Seat. Exxon vote tallies show that Engine No.1 has another director joining the board. Andy Karsner should be well known to some of you, at one point during the Bush years, Karsner was the highest-ranked Moroccan American in the US government, interesting mostly to me since my family stems from Morocco as well. Karsner most recently spent time at Emerson Collective and comes with a technology view on solving for climate change. As a former wind developer, Karsner was early in building his renewable credentials which will hopefully enable Exxon to see the energy transition as an opportunity not a threat to their business model.
The Big Freeze Inflection. It is becoming clear that winter storm Uri that hit Texas in February of this year is going to be an inflection point for the energy market. The value of winterization, threat of losing frequency on the grid, and realistic event of having to black start generation are all entering analysis in a way that was always viewed as too nuanced before the storm.
PJM Results. The results came in and capacity pricing came in light, some pointing to the lower reserve margins as the leading cause. Coal cleared 8GW less than the last auction and some plants are threatening to shut down due to the low pricing.
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Have a great day!
Yann