What’s In The Debt Deal? Headlines highlight environmental permitting for energy projects as being included in the debt ceiling deal. First, getting debt ceiling issue behind us creates an economic certainty that is a pre-requisite for anything that is to follow in terms of private capital investments. What the deal also brings to the forefront is the need to talk about permitting as something that hinders the type of private investments that our infrastructure needs and time kills deals (as well as returns). The deal does not actually deal with the issue of permitting and interconnection in the way that is really needed but more of a down payment for further discussions.
Almost $2 But Need $4. Trillion dollars per year, that is. The amount of capital that needs to be invested annually according to the IEA in order to meet the climate and energy needs that come with the energy transition. New generation, new resilience, new fuel delivery mechanisms, are all part of the global picture as we transition more and more energy usage from molecules to electrons. But at $1.7trillion this year, that’s not a bad market to serve of be investing out of.
You Snooze, You Lose. The UK has a good idea when it comes to clearing interconnection queues. When it’s your turn to step you, you better be ready to move or you’ll lose your turn. Innovators could be disadvantaged because selling or raising money for a project without interconnection is hard which means that large corporations with captive capital sources could benefit from a quick turn around. The intention to move through the queue faster is the right idea and that envelope should be pushed.
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A Global View. 2023 is likely to be a banner solar and wind year globally, expected to add over 400GW of total capacity around the world. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine taking a volatility mallet to the EU gas market, it was just yesterday that Ukraine saw defensive positives in the distributed nature of wind farms. In total that brings the installed capacity to 4,500GW globally for wind and solar. The as available nature is going to require some storage I presume…
Permit Expediting. Europe is tired of waiting for projects that they want, and investors are willing to invest in, to get built because the permits aren’t getting approved. A new directive is going to make it 2 years maximum to get a project approved and 1 year for a repower. With as much existing capacity that exists, I can see colocation of some batteries in the future as well, given the success we’ve seen in the UK market. There are 58GW in permitting stages awaiting approval, possibly igniting a new stage of growth in the EU markets.
Taking A Manufacturing Victory Lap. Treasury released additional guidance for the $10billion in manufacturing tax credits this week and trade groups can take a victory lap for bringing the US manufacturing sector back to life. Press releases barely get highlighted anymore but that’s exactly what this exciting market needed after years of advocacy to get the IRA done.
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DC Work Remains. Next week I’ll be in Washington DC at the Secure Renewables conference. Solar used to be the niche, I recall a legislative effort to get solar to 2% of the portfolio. It’s more than just niche now that hundreds of billions flow into the sector annually. With the addition of energy storage, the role that our generation plays with our grid security is enhanced and widely underreported. How to control, manage and monitor these assets has to be given due regard and I look forward to hearing from the experts next week while in town. You can find more about the conference here.
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