The Gas Goal. There’s an obsession in DC that gas is the only thing that can be built, but with volatile gas markets and drop in oil prices, production is coming down. Reality is that over the next 5 years there are three things that can be built, and the status quo build rate will barely cover the need we have for retirement recovery. The gas plants that are already on order will be built and besides that solar and storage will cover the gap. There is much more solar that could get built, that extra representing the opportunity our Country has to own the AI future.
Who, What, Where, and How Much. Who can build the gas power plants? EPCs are scheduled out well past the end of the decade. What turbines can anyone order? Turbine OEMs are seemingly sold out until 2032 and tariffs are not helping feedstock costs. Where are the turbines made? While there is some domestic manufacturing, more scrutiny of largely offshore gas turbine manufacturing should be discussed. How much will the energy market pay for gas output? And who will pay for the unknown fuel costs for decades to come? Capacity prices will have to rise and energy prices are too low in some market meaning there is significant market signal lacking in order to achieve these goals.
- Financial Times: US oil output set for first annual drop since pandemic
- Utility Dive: US utility-scale energy storage to double, reach 65 GW by 2027: EIA
- BLoomberg: US Energy Secretary Is Trying to Change Blue-State Minds About Fossil Fuels
- Reuters: China, Africa ask US to return to ‘right track’ on trade differences
- Energy Storage News: Growing need for BESS quality control, risk management strategies, insurer kWh Analytics says
- New York Times: Why Rooftop Solar Could Crash Under the G.O.P. Tax Bill
- PV-Tech: Top ten solar manufacturers ship 500GW modules in 2024
- PV-Magazine: Tracking the top states for community solar
Opinion
Best, Yann