This is your SolarWakeup for May 18th, 2020

Forecasting 2020. There are two rules in being a public company that executives can live by both driven by overdelivering. In a crisis like COVID, most companies will underpromise publicly and then quietly spread whispers about positive outlook. This ensures that expectations are reachable but no investor thinks the company cannot weather the storm. The other way is to be contrarian and that is more situationally accurate for solar right now. Almost every solar company has withdrawn guidance and spoken with optimism. Sunnova is taking the other path by reaffirming their 2020 guidance. In a single sentence during the earnings call, Sunnova put it on the line in 2020 and putting their teams on notice. This is the year that execution is key because underdelivering on expectations is a Wall Street sin you don’t want.

My Take. If you want to know what is going on in the solar market and my update on the survey data that will be released on Tuesday, you can register for the webinar here. It’s at 10am EST on Tuesday.

SunPower Enhances Focus. It was a big week for SunPower gaining regulatory approval for the split between the module business and the ’services’ platform/dealer network. The company also sold its O&M business which goes further in raising funds and reducing operational expenses at the company. In a few quarters it will be difficult to differentiate between SunPower and Sunrun and to a certain extent Vivint Solar and Sunnova. Each has one or more of the following attributes: direct sales, dealer network, self install, outsourced sales channels, subcontracted installers and all have their own funding structure. Game on…

Big Modules. 400W, 500W. Pretty soon we’ll be talking about real modules. The first ever quote for modules I got was in 2006 for $3.95/watt for a 195W module (sans tariffs).

Supercharge Use Drops. Elon tweeted a graph of Supercharge usage that spans the past year and peaks in December/January. A few weeks ago charging usage went to 30% of the peak in both North America and European geographies. It’s on the way up again, close to 50%. But will it ever go back to the 100% mark, adjusting for the increase in cars on the road? Utility planners around the Country are studying this image to understand consumer behavior post-COVID and if they are honest with regulators will likely have to ask that homes install more solar. Why? Even if 20% of those in the workforce transition to working from home, grid infrastructure is going to have to adapt quickly and likely cost ratepayers billions. More to come

Opinion

Best, Yann