By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent
At Intersolar North America two weeks ago, I sat down with Martin Hermann, founder and CEO of 8minutenergy on the heels of their announcement of their Eagle Shadow Mountain project, which was signed at a flat rate of $23.76 per megawatt-hour throughout its 25-year PPA term, or 2.3 cents per kilowatt-hour. In Part 1 of our discussions, Martin Hermann and I talked about just how low he thinks module prices can go. In Part II, which will be posted later this week, Martin Hermann discussed the tariffs and their overall effect on the U.S. solar industry. Here is what he had to say in Part II of our discussions.
Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent: (FA): Storage is another big topic of conversation in the industry. Where do you see energy storage right now and how does it help the market mature?
Martin Hermann (MH): The headline is that the future of dispatchable solar is here. The value is here right now for dispatchable utility-scale solar to replace gas peaker plants and even combined cycle plants in the sunnier parts of the country. I am optimistic about where we are as an industry and where we are going with batteries, although I’m not as strong an advocate for distributed generation as some others in the industry. We calculated how much it would cost to run the California grid on only distributed renewables plus storage, and we discovered costs would be six times higher than they are now. So while solar-plus-storage is the future of electricity generation, I think it will be primarily on the utility-scale side of the ledger. You need to put the technology where it will work at its strength.
FA:So what is going on with the tariff situation? What kind of impact do you think they will have on the
MH: I think the good news is that our technology at this point is bigger than tariffs and it will continue to grow. At 8minutenergy, we are completely focused on the U.S. market, and are seeing some remarkable projects come to fruition, including our Eagle Shadow Mountain plant in Nevada that is leading the nation as the lowest-cost solar project. Now, the U.S. market overall might grow more slowly in the short-term than countries that are not putting tariffs on solar. India, for example, continues to move forward and they are the second-largest market behind China, so little blips here and there in other markets aren’t going to derail the global solar industry. Besides India, there are other markets that are starting to install massive amounts of solar, which I believe is just a testimony to the overwhelmingly strong fundamentals of the industry.
FA:Do you think China’s decision to stop building new projects in the second half of the year is going to have the effect of flooding the market with inexpensive modules and, if so, do you think it could end up having a positive effect on the U.S. market?
MH: It is too early to tell. I’d be a little cautious about saying that a major policy change in China is going to have a significant effect on the U.S. market. It’s certainly true that there will be an oversupply of modules, but I see those going to markets much closer to China, like India, instead. There will be other countries that will benefit, too. I’m just not sure the U.S. market will be affected significantly by the recent decisions in China.