Discussing The Market. Join me tomorrow in a discussion with Roth Capital’s Philip Shen about the SolarWakeup Tracking Survey results. If you’re interested in joining and reading Phil’s excellent coverage of the solar universe and public solar companies, email him at pshen@roth.com.
Adjusting The Forecast. WoodMac released an adjustment to the 2020 forecast for distributed solar. Their belief is that the 2020 forecast needs to be adjusted down by 31%, likely putting 2020 down from 2019. The public analysis doesn’t differentiate between residential and commercial but my view is that this is conservative and assumes a total shutdown for 4 months. The data we are seeing in our surveys and conversations with the market is one of resilience. Yes, 2020 won’t be 25% growth from last year but solar installers are finding ways to continue selling and using self-reliance as a purchasing motivation. We’ll get more into remote sales over the next few surveys and how you are adjusting the forecast.
Building Department Insight. Last week’s tracking survey showed a potential problem in the market with building departments closing. On the other hand, there has been a lot of talk about FaceTime inspections and email permitting so let’s see what the rest of you are seeing. So in this week’s tracking survey, we ask a few questions on the topic as well as updating the week to week changes. Respondents to the survey get the full data summary in advance of the rest of SolarWakeup subscribers. Click here to participate.
The States and Cities. Here is some reality to everyone in every industry. Cities and States are fighting the pandemic which is costing them money in addition to focus. Unlike the federal government, these bureaucracies can’t print their own currency and don’t operate at a deficit. In fact, they will have to raise debt or tap into emergency pools. This means that solar and renewable goals will take a backseat to the current emergency. My hope is that in package 4 stimulus, Congress includes aid to the local level in some form (treasury debt perhaps).
Preview Of Climate Change. Not to be alarmist but you’ve seen the climate change headline about mass migration or release of gases from the permafrost. Yes, this reads like a Dan Brown novel but there are some scary thoughts of what a global climate change event looks like. Our work is as important as ever, keep up the optimism and energy!
- Greentech Media: WoodMac – Distributed Storage Outlook Shrinks for 2020 Due to Coronavirus
- Vox: The missing puzzle piece for getting to 100% clean power
- PV-Magazine: Texas installer sees coronavirus concerns driving interest in residential storage
- PV-Tech: BayWa: COVID-19 impacts ‘not possible’ to predict after RES unit’s strong 2019
- Utility Dive: Colorado expedites Tri-State member exit charge case, as power supplier gets ‘split decision’ on FERC jurisdiction
- Axios: Equinor bails on oil trade group over climate change disagreements
- Los Angeles Times: California approves climate change target that critics say is far too weak
Opinion
Best, Yann