A Must Read. A Director of Finance at NRG Energy wrote a contributing article for Utility Dive with the thesis of the impossibility that 100% renewable energy by 2050. I can only assume that the author was looking to show his bosses that he’s going public for the team, a rallying cry of sorts. Unfortunately, this is going to fall flat and make his name known in Princeton in a way that he probably wasn’t hoping for.
What Happened? According to comment I received from an NRG spokesperson late last night, “What is written in the piece is solely the author’s opinion, not NRG’s.” Based on what I write below, I question his overlap with renewable energy projects within NRG because I know that the former renewable energy team at NRG was more than capable. In fact, the solar and wind portfolio was sold for over $1.3billion. I believe the company’s statement because there is no way that the company would make this bold statement, which is against the thesis of most major IPPs, without such a statement coming from the very top.
Checking The Facts. Here are the big statements that are made. First, solar and wind are not ‘controllable’ assets, i.e. they are not dispatchable. Second, wind and solar are too expensive and energy storage still needs to ‘evolve.’ Last, “initial capital cost ($/kWh) of renewables is high.” Starting with the last statement, you can clearly see the missed $/kW knock against renewables by stating kWh but reading past that, the author does say that LCOE of renewables is cheaper than gas. For comparisons and a sample project, the article uses a 500MW solar and 1.2GWh energy storage install for a whopping $1.2billion price tag using $1.50/watt and $400/kWh for storage.
Reality Check. Clearly the facts are wrong and the thesis is wrong. It is absolutely achievable to get to 100% RE by 2050 and I would guess if asked, NRG Energy would agree that it is not only possible but also likely. Solar in Portugal is contracting for under $0.02 per kWh. Solar plus storage is cheaper in almost every RFP in utility procurement in the US. Even a 10MW solar plus storage plan in Minnesota is cheaper than the co-op continuing to buy from their generating partner. Solar is installing for under $0.75/watt in Texas and storage is well below $300/kWh in most instances. It also excludes any price declines that the industry will see over the next 3 decades and ignores the reality that most fossil plants will be at or beyond retirement age by 2050.
- Utility Dive: Why 100% renewables isn’t feasible by 2050
- Bloomberg: Softbank Fund Makes Energy-Storage Bet With an Unusual Battery
- Axios: Summer price spikes are a feature of Texas’ power market, not a bug
- SolarWakeup Live!: Future Of Solar In Midwest at MREA’s The Energy Fair
- New York Times: How One Billionaire Could Keep Three Countries Hooked on Coal For Decades
- Greentech Media: Canadian Solar Boosts Annual Module Guidance, Shares Jump
- Solar Industry: U.S. Military Supplier Uses C-PACE Financing To Expand On-Site Solar
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Have a great day!
Yann