BP, Red Team vs Blue Team. I’ve read through BP’s Energy Outlook and have a few thoughts before digging into two particular details. First, I am surprised they even put this out since they know that people and markets will disagree. Some startups will jump for joy at the stats and plug it into their decks while others will laugh at the aging dinosaur going its own way. Second, this is their own investor deck. They are telling their investors what their version of the future looks like and why they are making certain investments outside of oil. Lastly, this is a poorly disguised analysis. If they had wanted the report to be viewed as other than corporate playbook they should have had an internal debate on each view. For greater transparency let the dissenting team publish their view alongside.
BP, Electric Cars. Cars staying on oil based fuels is good for BP which would make you think that they will take a conservative view on how many EVs hit the road. BUT, BP has an estimate of 15% of the cars in 2040 being EVs. I know there are fringe cases about cars in developing countries and island economies where estimates don’t see a large use case for EVs and we live in a bubble here in the US. That being said, as an EV driver for the past 6 years, there is zero chance that 15% is within a 10% margin of error and that is just based on common sense. On the other hand, what would BP investors say if BP came out and said 75% of cars will be EV in 20 years.
BP, Cost of Solar. BP sees cost of solar at $0.06 per kWh in 2020 leveling down to $0.05/kWh by 2040. I feel like that there is no explanation needed here. Consider this however, 9 months ago BP issued 11 year bonds at a 1.637% interest rate, which is lower than the US Government 10 year today.
Australia’s RPS Coming? The Labor party in Australia is hoping to get a 75% renewable energy target by 2025 with a clean peak standard of 25% equating to about 750MW of energy storage.
It’s All Fake News. Interesting to see the online platforms that allow for grassroots activism to come out in favor of an issue are now essentially tools that don’t really require any people. Much like voting going back to paper ballots, it will become common for grassroots to urge hand written notes once again. These emails, online comments like we see during the SCANA debate, are likely being ignored.
- BP: BP Energy Outlook
- PV-Magazine: SA Labor sets 75% by 2025 RET
- Think Progress: Industry group draws scrutiny over barrage of fraudulent emails in South Carolina
- Renew Economy: Germany’s sonnen to manufacture solar batteries in Adelaide
- Rocky Mountain Institute: Davos – The Need for Renewables in Our Shared Future
- Washington Post: Pending Va. law will affect utility bills for a decade. Here’s what you need to know.
- Portland Press Herald: Advocates for home solar projects slam decision by ‘out-of-control’ PUC
- Greentech Media: Long-Tail Solar Consolidation – Soligent Acquires Installer Network Repower America
Opinion
Have a great day!
Yann