This is your SolarWakeup for October 17th, 2017

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Suniva Gets Money. A judge has approved an additional $3million loan from DIP lenders. The majority of the money is going to Mayer Brown, the law firm, representing Suniva in the 201 petition with remaining dollars going to payroll and keeping the lights on. I am somewhat surprised to see that the payroll is still this high, likely representing 30-40 FTE still on the team.

For What? If you recall, SQN had between $51 and $52million in loans to Suniva before the DIP loans started. The 201 petition is meant to try and recoup as much of that as possible at the cost of the industry’s job losses. In the meantime, the only visible Suniva executive continues to get bonus payoffs comparable to singing for Ursula. SQN has no intention, in my opinion, to restart Suniva, solely focused on recouping its capital. I’ve been told that US manufacturing would be thin on labor and include more robots instead, which makes me wonder and ask people in the know what the market value of the Suniva equipment is.

China Diplomacy. I continue to be shocked that this is happening to solar. When you read the Axios article, you have to wonder why solar has to be held to the higher standard of being integrated in the US. Bankers, lawyers and developers from the US are doing business across the world in solar. SunPower stated on the record how much money they invest in R&D in the US with US labor and scientists. I bring up the iPhone again, because there is no more obvious product in our lives that relies on foreign manufacturing.

Where This Ends. Trump is scheduled to head to China in November, after the vote by the ITC on one or more remedies. While the ITC remedies will be important, I see the potential for a buffet of options to come from the commission with an array of remedies to choose from. I expect the staff to be read in to the options before the full proposal goes to the President because this is going to come up in China. The minimum price doesn’t seem likely to me and the quotas without a way to fill the gap in our market are also too damaging. The question is how high the tariff, per watt, will be. Whether through and import license or as a tariff, with a mechanism to drive some money to US manufacturers, a per watt price adder is the most likely outcome in my mind.

Podcast Plug. States are the place for solar policy drives the market. I interviewed Lucy Mason from AriSEIA here, and I look forward to speaking with MA Senator Boncore about NEM Caps and the director of MA DOER about SMART program.

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Opinion

Have a great day!

Yann